Sports Betting Professor

Hey,

It’s Rich Allen from http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com.

I just made a new video that could really help you make some money betting on college hoops this season.

Check it out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUgZrPZ4T98

Thanks,

Rich

http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com

Hey,

It’s Rich Allen from http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com.

 It’s that time of the year when College Basketball really starts heating up.  Conference games are getting into full swing and this is when the upper echelon teams start to show they’re a cut above the rest of the field.  Enough with the games against lower opponents that don’t even deserve to be on the same floor with the beasts of the game, it’s time to find out if you’re ready for a deep run during March Madness.  And while it’s exciting to watch these giants tear into each other, what does it mean from a betting standpoint? 

 

 By that I mean, how do the ‘top’ teams in College Basketball fare against the pointspread, the only number that matters to a serious bettor?  Taking a look at some of the top ranked teams this year, we find some interesting facts. 

 

Kansas is the unanimous #1 team this year.  Last season the Jayhawks had a 27-8 record Straight Up (SU) and were a terrific 20-8-1 Against The Spread (ATS).  That’s an unbelievable 71%.  This year’s #2 team is the Michigan St. Spartans.  Last year they were 31-7 SU and 21-13 ATS, that’s still 62%.  Keep in mind the magic number to make a profit when betting on sports is 52.7%.  So these numbers are amazing. 

 

Keeping it going, the #3 team, Villanova, last year they were 19-15 ATS, that’s 56%.  While that may not sound like much, remember this: If everyone hit 55% the sportsbooks would soon be out of business.  If you bet $1,000 a game, over the course of 1,000 games with 10 cent juice and you hit 55% you would profit $55,000. If you hit 58% you would profit $118,000! 

 

This trend continues right though the Top 6 teams.  However, that’s where it goes down hill.  After that it drops down to around 50% and then once you get past the Top 15 there’s no discernible pattern. 

 

While this in no way guarantees future success, it’s something to keep in mind in as this season progresses.  The top teams, and I mean the very top teams, start paying attention if they take care of their ATS business because it can make you a boatload of money once things start heating up.

Regards,

Rich

http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com

Hi,

It’s Rich from http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com

In case you didn’t catch my last post about how to read American style odds on Point Spreads, I made a video giving a full explanation.  It’s for any newcomers but especially helpful for European bettors not used to our style of point spreads and fixed odds.

Check out the video here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6W6H-hT5pk

Thanks,

Rich

http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com

Hey,

It’s Rich Allen from http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com. 

I didn’t realize how many of my European friends were struggling with the concept and style of American betting odds.  To that end, one of my business partners and I put together this manual that I think will go a long way towards removing any questions. 

If it’s still not clear, please feel free to email me at http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com

The article is below, enjoy …

UK Betting Manual

 

Welcome to the Sports Betting Professor manual, design to help you make the most from this fantastic service.

 

Firstly, here are the sports that we will be using to make some serious money.

 

Sport                                                                          Season

 

American Football (NFL)                                        September-end of January

American College Football (NCAAF)                    September-early January

Basketball (NBA)                                                    November-June

Baseball (MLB)                                                       April-October

 

In America, all betting is done with a Sportsbook, the equivalent of a Bookmaker in the UK/Europe.

 

The way betting is carried out on American sports is slightly different. In the UK/Europe, we are more familiar with simply placing a bet on a team to win the match or game.

 

For example Manchester United v Chelsea, and we will be presented with the odds for each team to win and we can make our selection.

 

With American Football and Basketball, we can also make the same win bet, however the terminology used is a little different and a handicapping system is also employed.

 

The terminology you will see will be what’s called the Spread and the Money Line. The money line is simply a straight forward win bet on a team and this is what we will use for Baseball which we will come to later in the manual. The spread is the handicap system and this is what we will use to place our bets with the Sports Betting Professor on American Football and Basketball.

 

So for now we will concentrate on the Spread. This is similar to horse racing in the UK; the handicapper tries to adjust a horse race such that in an ideal world all the horses would cross the line at the same time.

 

Let’s take American Football as an example. One team will be the favorite and one team will be the underdog just as they would in a UK/European football match. So the handicap system employed in America aims to make both teams equal by suggesting the score that a team should win or lose by.

 

Below Rich gives an example of this. In doing so he explains the spread and money lines, but it is the spread that we need to concentrate on for now.

 

 

I think the most important thing to cover is the meaning of the point spreads and the money associated with betting on each team.  For American football and basketball this works in the same manner so let’s give an example.

Let’s say the Baltimore Ravens are playing the Green Bay Packers and the game is listed the following way:

 

                              Spread                     Money Line

 

Baltimore Ravens +3.5 (-110)                   +170

 

Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-110)                  -200

 

First let’s start off by explaining the difference between Spread and Money Line betting.  Money Line betting is what you’re probably more familiar with.  In this case you are just betting on one team or the other to win the game.

 

In the above example the odds makers feel the Packers are the stronger team so you have to risk $200 to win $100 for Green Bay to win the game.  For Baltimore you risk $100 to win $170.

 

However, in U.S. sports most of the action is done on spread betting.  So look at the game above again.  The way you read that is: “Green Bay - 3.5” or “Baltimore +3.5.”

 

Whenever you bet on a team with the minus sign in front, they are the favored team (the Favorite) and for betting purposes you have to subtract (or minus) the points listed from your team’s final score.  The team with the plus sign is called the Underdog.  That might be confusing so let me slow down here.

 

Let’s say that you bet on the Packers to cover the spread.  The final score of the game ends up Green Bay 20 and Baltimore 17.  So Green Bay wins the game.  But… remember for betting purposes we have to subtract 3.5 points from Green Bay’s final score.  That makes the new final Baltimore 17 and Green Bay 16.5.  So even though Green Bay won the game in real life, in the betting world they lose because they did not win by the required amount of points.

 

Same rule applies if you bet on Baltimore but since they have the + sign you get to add that many points.  So same final score of Green Bay 20 and Baltimore 17 would mean Baltimore loses the game.  But… remember to add 3.5 points to Baltimore’s final score.  That makes it Green Bay 20 and Baltimore 20.5 and so for gambling purposes your bet on Baltimore is a winner even though they lost the game.

 

 

Because of this you should know one steadfast rule:

 

***If you are betting on the team that has the + sign in front of it, you want to have the biggest number possible.  When you are betting on the team with the – sign in front of it you want the smallest number possible***

 

Makes sense doesn’t it?

 

Now one more thing on the spreads, below Rich talks about juice payments and gives his recommendations for the best sources to place your bets. This is simply American terminology for a change in odds and it will become clearer when we talk about where to place your bets in the UK/European markets.

 

Buying Points

 

On some occasions my betting system recommends that you should buy a half point on a game.  What does this mean?  Well let’s keep things simple and stay with our example that we’ve been using:

 

                             Spread                     Money Line

 

Baltimore Ravens +3.5 (-110)                   +170

 

Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-110)                  -200

 

 

Let’s say you got my pick and I said to bet on Green Bay -3.  You go to your sportsbook and the game is listed -3.5.  Then you would need to buy a half point moving the line in your favor.  At most casinos this will cost you an extra 10% in juice payment.

 

So instead of betting on Green Bay minus 3.5 and risking $110 to win $100 now you would be betting on Green Bay minus 3 risking $120 to win $100.

 

That’s why I recommend Heroes Sportsbook out of Curacao for one reason: value.  They have the best lines for betting underdogs, which we often do.  Plus they have a 10 cent juice spread in NBA and Football.  What that means is instead of -110 on each side, it will only be -105 or a variation thereof (maybe -108 on one side and -102 on the other).  This goes a long way towards adding money to your account over the course of a season.

 

Check out Heroes Sportsbook here

 

Other sportsbooks that are trusted and offer this type of wagering (with the buying of points, etc.) include:

 

Olympic (www.thegreek.com)

 

Pinnacle Sports (www.pinnaclesports.com)

 

Where to place your bets in UK/Europe.

 

 

The sportsbooks (Bookmakers) recommended above maybe unfamiliar to you and you may feel a little uncomfortable using them. Fear not, we have all the facilities we need in the UK to capitalize on these sports.

 

You will need two facilities, the first of which will be very familiar to you and no doubt will already be in your armory, Betfair. In addition to Betfair you will need an account at an online Bookmaker. We can often make our bets with Betfair, however we will need also to use the online Bookmaker as sometimes Betfair do not provide the spread or points that we need.

 

To explain, in the above example, Rich has given his pick (selection) as Green Bay -3. Remember a minus quotation means that the team is the favorite and that we are going to take 3 points off their final score.

 

It is very important to remember that we are going to win over 90% of all our bets here and this is the case because Rich has spent many years researching the numbers behind his picks and his record over the seasons is second to none. As such we need to make sure that we place our bets exactly in accordance with his pick.

 

So we need to place our bet on Green Bay to win at -3.

 

The first point of call is Betfair. If Betfair are showing Green Bay at -3, great we can make our bet. However this will not always be the case, they could be showing Green Bay at -3.5 or -2 for example. If this was the case then -2 would be fine for us as this is better than -3 as we only need to take 2 points off Green Bays final score. However -3.5 would not suffice and we would need to buy half a point.

 

This is where we need to use our bookmaker account as Betfair do not offer the facility to buy points.

 

If you do not wish to use the Heroes sportsbook as recommended by Rich, then many of the UK/European bookmakers offer this facility. One of the best in my opinion is Bet365.

 

So at Bet365, we are looking to place our bet on Green Bay at -3.  We click on American Football and the relevant game. If Bet365 are not offering Green Bay at -3 as their standard quote, we simply click on the additional point spread where -3 will be available.

 

What it means when we buy points is simply that there is a change in the odds.

 

So we have at our fingertips all that we need to make some serious money with the Sports Betting Professor. If we can not place the bet with Betfair, we simply use the additional point spread facility at Bet365 and we will never miss a bet.

 

Baseball

 

For our Baseball picks given out by Rich, we do not need to concern ourselves with the spread; we simply make our bets on the money line or team to win. In this instance we can use Betfair all the time as they offer odds on each team to win or we could use an online bookmaker to seek out better odds just as we may do in any sport.

 

Finally…

 

Money Management

 

As with investing in any sports betting, money management is absolutely vital.

 

With the Sports Betting Professor we are using a staking system known as bets A, B and C. This is employed because Rich has carried out extensive research and statistical analysis and it is proven over many many seasons to be the optimum plan to maximize your profits.

 

The plan is simplistic and requires little explanation which can be found with the links you will have received when you joined the Sports Betting Professor. The key factor to remember is to set you target to risk between 2 and 5% of your betting bank. This way you will easily cover any losing runs.

 

I hope that goes a long way towards removing some of the mystery with the American sports of football and basketball and baseball.  If you’re not getting involved with these sports you’re really missing the boat on some easy profits.

 

Regards,

Rich Allen

The Sports Betting Professor

Hey it’s Rich Allen from http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com.

If you haven’t seen it already, you have to check out Deadspin.com’s excerpts from the new Tim Donaghy book.  In the passages, the disgraced former NBA referee makes some pretty outrageous, yet specific, claims about how officials would go out of their way to influence games.  Basically he says the refs had no integrity and would screw around with outcomes on stuff as trivial as who didn’t have to tip the ball boys for bringing them pizza after the game. 

 

Yet the most explosive parts of the book are where he names names, calling out particular referees and how they like to manipulate games.  He mentions Dick Bavetta, who was a ref in what most people regard as the worst officiated game in NBA history: Gm. 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals between the Sacramento Kings and L.A. Lakers.  And while that claim is up for debate, he also makes this specific allegation against Bavetta:

 

           

            The real reason that I bet the losing team was that I was just about

            certain they would cover the spread, no matter how badly they

            played.  That is where Dick Bavetta comes into the picture.

 

From my earliest involvement with Bavetta, I learned that he likes

            to keep games close, and then when a team gets down by double-

            digit points, he helps the players save face. He accomplishes this

            act of mercy by quietly, and frequently, blowing the whistle on

            the team that’s having the better night. Team fouls suddenly

            become one-sided between the contestants, and the score begins

            to tighten up. That’s the way Dick Bavetta referees a game – and

            everyone in the league knew it.

 

OK, so working off of that assumption it should mean that if you bet on underdogs in all the games Bavetta officiated you should have positively cleaned up.  I’m not saying you would win every game; that would be ridiculous.  But the way Donaghy describes it, he made a killing with this betting theory. 

 

I was curious so I did some research and the results were pretty damn convincing that Donaghy is full of it.  If you don’t know, you need to hit 52.7% of your bets to make a profit if you’re betting with standard 10 cent juice ($110 to win $100).  Donaghy was forced out after the 2006-07 season so I looked at the 10 year period leading up to that time and here’s what I found.

 

Over that 10 year stretch there were only 2 seasons that returned a profitable percentage betting on underdogs in games that Bavetta officiated!  Those were the seasons of 1998-99 when ‘dogs came back at a 55.7% clip and also the 2001-02 when they hit 57.1%.  For those 2 years, that’s not bad money.  But that was it, not one other season returned at least a 52.7%.  In fact, you would have lost your shirt in just about every other season following this theory. 

 

The 1999-2000 season ‘dogs hit 48%.  In 2000-01, it was exactly 50%.  In the 2002-2003 season, the underdogs only hit 46%.  The year after that it was 45% and the year after that only 41%.  You’d go broke with that kind of strike rate.

 

I think this little bit of research disproves the ‘Bavetta Theory’ laid out by Donaghy and calls into question the veracity of his other claims.  I’m not saying the NBA should be off the hook, and the refereeing is incredibly bad sometimes, but we have to question whether the rest of Donaghy’s information is credible.

 

If he lied about this, we can’t take his other charges on face value either. 

 

Rich Allen

http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com

Hello again,

It’s Rich Allen from http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com.

Tonight brings us Gm. 2 of the World Series.  The Phils took Gm. 1 in semi-surprising fashion.  It’s not like Sabathia got rocked or anything, and you expected Lee to pitch well.  But a complete game, only 1 run allowed?  Impressive.

But moving on to tonight’s game we see something that I became quite familiar with during my time behind an offshore lineboard.  It’s a situation where the public tries to play the part of the wiseguy.  The Yankees are HEAVILY favored (2 to 1) in this game.  It’s also a desperation game for them as they do not want to be going to Philly down 2 games to nothing.  The Yankees just lost their first home game of the entire playoffs, and yet …

The public is on Philadelpia.  I don’t know if everyone wants to fall in love with the story of Pedro vs. the Yankees or what.  But I do know that I’ve seen this scenario before: the public thinks they’re smarter than the oddsmakers. 

There are no guarantees in life but usually when the public thinks they’re smart that usually makes the bookie smile.

Until next time,

Rich

http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com

Hi,

It’s Rich Allen from http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com.

One of the questions I get a lot is, “What’s the proper amount to bet per game?”  The answer that I give is the one that most sound financial advisers give: the sleep test.  In the investment world, they say if your investments are keeping you up at night, you’ve taken on too much risk in your portfolio.

That holds the same for sports betting - you have to know what your risk tolerance is.  Even if you have a successful system like mine, you have to realize there will be some down turns.  Can you handle the roller-coaster ride without panicking?  If not, you should probably lower your bet amounts.  Betting on sports is supposed to recreational and fun, if it’s not you’re doing something wrong.

According to Sports Insights a good wager amount for each bet is between 2-5% of your total bankroll.  This way you can ride out those losing streaks, enjoy yourself, not worry, and still make some good money.  Click below to check out Sports Insights:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/affiliatewiz/aw.aspx?A=13

Have a great 4th!

Rich

http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com

Hey,

It’s Rich Allen from http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com

Well the Major League Baseball Betting System has been on a tremendous run of late, averaging +1 unit a day over the last 10 days.  That means if you’re a $100 bettor, you’d be up over $1,000 in the last week and a half!

Let’s see, the MLB season won’t finish until the end of September.  That’s roughly 4.5 months from now … so approximately 150 days … averaging a unit a day … holy s**t! 

The beauty of my MLB system, is that in contrast to other systems out there - THERE IS NO DOUBLE UP OR CHASE SYSTEM INVOLVED.  It’s just betting straight up games on the Money Line.

You can check it more details at http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com.

Don’t kill yourself by chasing after your losses, especially in MLB where you can get into large amounts very quickly.  That’s a sure fire way to have empty pockets at the end of the MLB betting season.

Talk to you soon,

Rich

http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com

Hi,

It’s Rich Allen from http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com

One of the more frequent questions I’m asked about my sports betting system is why don’t you use parlays to accentuate the strategy?  Think about those NFL parlay cards: ever have much success with those?  My overall strategy mirrors this article, written by RJ Bell of muzzle.com …

The general rule regarding parlays is: DON’T.

Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, but they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher probability of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.

A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets — a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn’t matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, make a parlay. We’ll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we’ll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you would still make the bet?

A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon whether the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn’t need to be there. The skilled handicapper is always seeking to make smart investments. He tries to eliminate the effect of luck to the greatest extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as possible.

Hi,

It’s Rich Allen from http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com.

Well the baseball betting season is finally upon us.  Couldn’t have come soon enough to those of us in the Northeast who’ve been dealing with a pretty sh**y winter.  Wouldn’t you know it though, Boston and New York both got rained out today. 

But I want to talk to you about the difference between Run Line betting and Money Line betting. 

This might be a bit confusing for some, so let me give an example. 

You might see a game with a line like this:

Team                                 Money Line                   Run Line                 Total

New York Yankees              -115                           -1.5 +160                  9.5 -110

Boston Red Sox                  +105                          +1.5 -180                   9.5 -110

 

 

In this example, the Yankees are favored.  On the Money Line they are -115; this means you have to wager $115 to win $100.  If you bet a game on the Money Line, the team only has to win the game.  It doesn’t matter by how much they win by, 1 run or 10 runs, it doesn’t matter – your bet still wins.    

 

On the flip side, the Red Sox are +105.  This means you would bet $100 to win $105 on Boston.  And again, they only have to win the game by a run. 

 

If we were going to use the Run Line, that’s where a point spread comes into play.  You see the Yankees are -1.5 runs, so they would have to win by 2 runs or more to win a bet on New York.  Conversely, the Red Sox are getting 1.5 runs so if they lost by 1 run a bet on Boston would still be a winner.  The total means the total runs that will be scored in the game.

Did you know that between 20-30% of all MLB games are decided by 1 run?  If you’re on the wrong side of that, it can make for a very frustrating season.  That’s why you should check out my MLB system at http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com.  I’ll tell you what bets you should be making and why.  Also, whether or not the added juice you’ll take on a MLB underdog on the Run Line is worth it.