Sports Betting Professor

Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

Agent Mark Bartelstein explained Kurt Warner's position during a recent interview with Dan Bickley and Mike Jurecki on XTRA-910 AM in Phoenix. Thanks to Jimmy Shapiro of sportsradiointerviews.com for passing along the audio link.

I'm going to have to go Nick Burns on Bickley the next time he needs someone to repair his wireless connection in a press box (Week 4, the Meadowlands, you're welcome). Seriously, though, Dan hung me out to dry a little bit during this interview with Bartelstein.

In referring to my recent column about Warner, Dan slightly undersold what two NFL salary-cap managers had told me they thought Warner's value would be outside Arizona. One of the cap managers put the value at $6 million to $7 million per year. Another placed the value between $8 million and $10 million.

The Cardinals have been offering something in that $10 million range. We now skip ahead to that radio interview with Bartelstein.

Bickley: One of the sticking points in this chronology of these negotiations would have been a report that came out of ESPN.com which would have been a survey of general managers or people of that ilk at the scouting combine and Mike Sando deduced that Kurt's market value would be somewhere between $7 million and $8 million a year. Was that even good information to begin with?

Bartelstein: No. I actually talked to Mike about that. He talked to two guys that he was passing in the hall and he threw it out to them and they were not focused on it. I can promise you that was not his market value in the league. That much I can tell you for sure.

Bickley: It seemed rather low.

Bartelstein: All you have to look at is what the top quarterbacks in the league are earning and look at the performance that Kurt has put forth the last couple of years.

I do think the market value for Warner would be in that $6 million to $10 million range. If the market were appreciably higher, we would see teams lining up to sign Warner, and that would put pressure on the Cardinals.

Of course, Bartelstein would have an easier time driving up the price if Warner wouldn't keep talking about how he wants to finish his career in Arizona or possibly retire.

Bickley hit on that subject. Here is what Bartelstein said when Bickley noted that Warner isn't playing the role of Rod Tidwell very convincingly:

Bartelstein: I hear what you are saying. I'll take the Kurt Warners every day of the week. He is not just a client, he is a dear friend. His values are in the right place. That being said, I don't want that to be used against him.

I don't think because a guy shows his hand and shows where his heart is at that that should be used against him. He should be valued for what he does by the organization that he plays for and what he does on the field, in the locker room, in the community.

Those are the elements that are so critical in determining what is his value to the Cardinals. And I think they know that. I hope they know it. That is what I'm trying to drive across and we're trying to make a deal.

Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley

The Dallas Cowboys announced Saturday they have traded starting cornerback Anthony Henry for Lions quarterback Jon Kitna. And who could blame the Lions for doing business with the Cowboys? Based strictly on last season's results, it looks like Detroit fleeced the Cowboys on the Roy Williams deal.

Now the Lions have traded a quarterback who they were about to release for a starting cornerback. I understand that the Cowboys would have had competition for Kitna had he hit the open market, but did they really need to trade a player of Henry's value?

Henry is not even the player the Cowboys have been shopping. That would be safety Roy Williams. Trading Williams for Kitna would have made more sense than giving up Henry. The Lions were probably hoping to land a late-round draft pick, at the most, for Kitna. Now, they have a player who started 16 games for the Cowboys in 2008.

The Cowboys could argue that Kitna's contract is better than Henry's, but there's not a huge difference. Kitna will make about $2 million in 2009 and Henry will make $3.6 milllion. Both players are entering the final year of their deals.

Now that we've established that it's a strange deal, I do think Kitna is a good fit for the Cowboys. Jerry Jones wants Roy Williams to become his No. 1 receiver — and the wide receiver had his best season as a pro with Kitna in 2006. Kitna is not going to compete with Romo for the starting job, but he's still good enough to pose a threat if Romo starts piling up turnovers.

Of the crop that included quarterbacks such as Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Jeff Garcia, Byron Leftwich and Charlie Batch, I thought Kitna was the best option. He is three years younger than Garcia and he is a guy who could step in and win some games if Romo gets hurt again. The Cowboys learned a tough lesson about backup quarterbacks in 2008.

Maybe that has something to do with them being a little overzealous in going after Kitna.

Posted by ESPN.com's Bill Williamson

Brian Dawkins certainly stands out as the highlight of Denver's free agent signings.

Denver has begun the Josh McDaniels era by being the busiest team in the league. Denver has signed nine players with more visits on the way, including Miami cornerback Andre Goodman. Most of Denver's signings have been inexpensive role players.

The signing of Dawkins, a Pro Bowler from Philadelphia, strays from that philosophy. Dawkins, 35, signed a five-year contract worth $17 million. The deal could be worth as much as $27 million. Dawkins is guaranteed $7.2 million in the first two years of the contract. That's why this deal was made.

The Broncos want Dawkins to set the tone for the defense. This was a good move.

Coupled with the signing of Miami safety Renaldo Hill, Dawkins gives the Broncos a new look at safety. Denver had arguably the worst safeties in the league last season, using several journeyman.

Dawkins will keep opposing offenses honest. He is still one of the premier hitters in the league and still an effective player. Dawkins, Hill and perhaps Goodman will join incumbent Champ Bailey to form a respectable secondary. Denver missed John Lynch's leadership and field presence last season. They got it back with Dawkins.

While Denver has a lot of work ahead, the addition of Dawkins is an important acquisition.

Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Graham

New Buffalo Bills center Geoff Hangartner declared himself ready for the challenge of facing the AFC East's formidable nose tackles.

All three of the Bills' divisional opponents run a 3-4 defensive scheme and place a hulking lineman right over the center.

The New England Patriots have Vince Wilfork. The New York Jets have Kris Jenkins. The Miami Dolphins have Jason Ferguson.

That's heavy duty.

"Playing in the division is going to be a challenge every week because there are some great nose guards," Hangartner told Buffalo reporters Saturday. He said he was 6-foot-5 and 315 pounds. "But I really like the challenge of playing against guys that are Pro Bowlers.

"And I know Kris really well from our three years in Carolina together. He's a heck of a player and I know the other guys are, too. But it's just something I'm looking forward to, the challenge. It'll be fun."

There had been some uncertainty where the Bills wanted Hangartner to play, but that was cleared up Saturday.

Center is "definitely what I'm most comfortable with and what I was hoping to do and what I'm planning to do here for the Bills," Hangartner said. 

Hangartner played center and guard for the Carolina Panthers last year. The Bills long have needed a center, but they created a need at left guard Thursday when they cut starter Derrick Dockery.

Hangartner last year started four games at center, two games at left guard and two games at right guard for Carolina. On the final 2008 depth chart he was listed as the starting right guard and backup center.

He started 15 games at center in 2006, one season after Carolina drafted him in the fifth round out of Texas A&M.

Hangartner is the second free-agency signing the Bills have announced. They also signed backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick on Friday night.

Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley

Eagles fans are still in a state of shock about safety Brian Dawkins signing with the Broncos. Philadelphia has always been willing to cut ties with beloved players such as Jeremiah Trotter, but Dawkins was different. He may have been the most beloved Eagles player since Randall Cunningham. Chairman/CEO Jeff Lurie and coach Andy Reid just released statements regarding Dawkins' departure:

Lurie:
Brian Dawkins has been one of the pillars of this franchise for 13 years. He helped lead us to five NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl. Brian embodies everything you look for in a professional athlete and human being. I have been fortunate to witness his impeccable character, his passion for the game of football and his commitment to being the best player he could be. I look forward to continuing a close relationship with him once his playing days are over. His legacy as an Eagle will last forever and will ultimately land him in Canton as a Hall of Famer."

Reid:
Brian is one of the best players in franchise history and one of the most popular players to ever play in the city of Philadelphia. The Eagles organization, as well as the entire fan base, will miss him not only as a player but as a tremendous person. This is the toughest part of my job, no question. He gave this city 13 years of emotional, energetic football. We wish Brian and his family nothing but the best as he continues his career in Denver.

Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky

The Texans have landed their primary target on the defensive line in free agency, former Cardinals end Antonio Smith. ESPN.com senior writer John Clayton reports it is a five-year, $35 million contract that will pay Smith $15.5 million in the first year, $19.4 million through the first two years and $24 million through the first three.

Houston's top goal in the offseason was to upgrade opposite Mario Williams, and the Texans cut unproductive Anthony Weaver before free agency opened.

Smith finished strong and is regarded by many as an improving and solid all-around end who can hold up well against the run with his size — 6-foot-4, 285 pounds. Paired with the 6-6, 286 Williams, the Texans will bring a lot of size on the outside.

How effective Smith will be at rushing the passer remains to be seen. He has 14.5 sacks in 62 career games, and took down the quarterback once in each of the Cardinals first two playoff games en route to the Super Bowl.

I expect the Texans think he will be a more productive pass rusher working with Williams, especially if the team adds to the interior defensive line as well.

Posted by ESPN's Mike Sando

The Cardinals drafted Calais Campbell last year with this day in mind.

Campbell, who contributed to the Cardinals' defensive line rotation as a rookie, becomes a more serious candidate to start now that Antonio Smith has left in free agency.

Smith had made himself into a quality starter at defensive end in the Cardinals' hybrid defense.

Arizona made a value judgment in letting Smith hit the market as an unrestricted free agent.

The Cardinals appear to be focusing their financial resources elsewhere on defense. Linebacker Karlos Dansby is scheduled to earn nearly $9.7 million as a franchise player. Strong safety Adrian Wilson and defensive tackle Darnell Dockett also appear in line for new deals at some point.

The Cardinals should come out OK if they drafted well in selecting Campbell.

Posted by ESPN.com's Bill Williamson

When word first broke that the Kansas City Chiefs had acquired quarterback Matt Cassel from the New England Patriots, I assumed it would involve the No. 3 overall pick.

So, I was wrapping myself around that concept trying to decide if it was a good deal or not. I could understand the Chiefs giving up the choice for their new franchise quarterback but I still couldn't decide whether it was a good deal or not.

Matt Cassel Quarterback Kansas City Chiefs 2008 STATS YDS CMP% TD INT RAT 3,693 63.4 21 11 89.4

Then I got the press release from the Chiefs explaining the deal: The Chiefs got Cassel and linebacker Mike Vrabel from the Patriots for their second-round pick, which is the No. 34 overall pick in the April draft.

I needed no more time to come to a conclusion: This was an outstanding deal for the Chiefs.

There really is no risk here. Look, we don't know if Cassel is going to be a superstar player. Yes, he looked good in his time as Tom Brady's replacement in New England. But he had a terrific supporting cast and superb coaching.

It is unclear if Cassel, who reunites with general manager Scott Pioli in Kansas City, can have the same impact on a much weaker Kansas City team. But he will at least be serviceable and capable of having a big game here and there. And don't discount the possibility of Cassel being outstanding in Kansas City.

The Chiefs have a decent offense and new head coach Todd Haley is known for his success in the passing game. Cassel does have a chance to be just as good he was in New England.

This was a deal Kansas City had to do considering what it gave up. Now, the Chiefs know they have their quarterback question answered and they still have the No. 3 overall pick to upgrade their defense. Right now, a good guess is that Kansas City will take Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry with the No. 3 pick.

To think the Chiefs can go to training camp with both Cassel and Curry has to be very enticing to the team. It appeared highly unlikely that would be the case.

Because of an expected high price tag on Cassel it was long my stance that the Chiefs should wait on getting a quarterback and stick with Tyler Thigpen for another year. I also thought the Chiefs should stay away from drafting a quarterback in the first round. I figured Thigpen could try to prove himself while the Chiefs, in dire need of help on the defensive side of the ball, draft a defensive player at No. 3.

In one trade, the Chiefs just improved in four areas. They got better at quarterback, backup quarterback, linebacker (in the form of Vrabel) and whomever they'll use the No. 3 pick on.

There's no denying it. The Chiefs had to make this trade.

Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Graham

Cassel

The 34th overall selection in this year's draft sure sounds like a bargain for the Kansas City Chiefs. That's all they gave the New England Patriots to obtain quarterback Matt Cassel and linebacker Mike Vrabel.

Sound a little cheap to you?

About seven weeks ago, I explored Cassel's trade value with a pair of analysts who've been around the NFL block a time or two.

Floyd Reese was one of them. The former Tennessee Titans general manager was working for ESPN at the time.

Now he's senior football adviser with the Patriots, coming aboard when Scott Pioli left to accept the Chiefs' GM job.

Here's what Reese said back then: "It would have to be multiple choices and very high choices to get Cassel. Two first-rounders, or a one and a two and a three … It'll be something very, very expensive."

Cassel hadn't been franchised yet, but it was common knowledge the tag was coming. So the element of unloading $14.65 million in guaranteed money was considered in the responses.

I also spoke with Michael Lombardi of the National Football Post.

Lombardi has a strong relationship with many in Patriots management, including coach Bill Belichick, from their days together with the Cleveland Browns. Lombardi was the first to report the Patriots were going to place the franchise tag on Cassel.

Lombardi claimed Cassel's starting price — not including Vrabel — should be the draft choices the San Diego Chargers received for Eli Manning.

At the 2004 draft, the New York Giants acquired Manning's rights for Philip Rivers' rights along with a third-round pick that year and their first- and fifth-round picks in 2005.

"Whatever the Giants gave up for Eli has to be the market," Lombardi said. "It's got to be a first-rounder, and not the 22nd or 24th pick in the draft. It has to be a substantial one and one that keeps on giving."

Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

The Bryant Johnson experiment in San Francisco unofficially ended when the 49ers showed little concern in letting the receiver hit free agency after one injury-affected season with the team. The official end came Saturday when Johnson agreed to terms on a three-year, $9 million deal with the Lions.

Johnson wound up getting a raise from the $2 million salary he earned from the 49ers last season. The 49ers' acquisition of Brandon Jones from the Titans fills Johnson's roster spot, but San Francisco is not finished making over the position. Isaac Bruce's decision on retirement could also affect the 49ers' plans.