Sports Betting Professor

Posted by ESPN.com’s Tim Griffin



STILLWATER, Okla. — If it seems like old times for Mack Brown tonight, it’s understandable.



Tonight should be the toughest remaining challenge for the Longhorns en route to the Big 12 championship game. If they can win tonight, it should be smooth sailing to the Dallas Cowboys Stadium on Dec. 5.



It was similar in 2005, when the Longhorns similarly opened up a lead in the South after beating Oklahoma. They overcame a big deficit in Oklahoma State in what turned out to be their biggest challenge of the game en route to their first undisputed national championship since 1969.



A victory tonight puts the Longhorns in control of their BCS destiny. With Florida and Alabama bound to either lose or play each other in the SEC title game, the Longhorns are positioned to be in the top two if they can win out.



Here are some things I’m watching for tonight before what should be a record crowd at Boone Pickens Stadium.

• Colt McCoy will have a chance to state his Heisman case in a national spotlight. The game will either be on ABC or ESPN2, so a big night will receive a wide national spotlight. McCoy threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns last week. He needs another big game tonight — particularly after Tim Tebow’s big game against Georgia earlier this afternoon.
• But don’t discount Oklahoma State’s Zac Robinson. If the Cowboys could engineer an upset tonight, his Heisman candidacy will get a boost. The fact he’s done it most of the season without Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter makes him a good story. But a victory tonight would introduce him to the nation.
• Oklahoma State needs to seal the deal if they get Texas behind. The Longhorns came back from a 19-point second-quarter deficit in 2005, to win a 47-28 game. In 2007, the Longhorns came back from a 21-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter to escape with a 38-35 victory — the largest fourth-quarter comeback in school history. In those two games, Texas outscored the Cowboys, 100-7, in the second half.
• While Mike Gundy claims his team isn’t snakebitten against Texas, it might be hard to believe that after losing 11 straight games. Gundy has been around as the head coach for the last four of them.
• Whether Kendall Hunter plays in the game or not, it is critical for the Cowboys to run the ball effectively. That would give them the ability to keep Texas from being able to tee off on them with their variety of blitzes that have been so successful this season.
• Texas’ “Goon Squad” defense has knocked out three straight rival quarterbacks in their last three games. They’ll be gunning for four tonight against Robinson.
• The Cowboys must do a good job stuffing the Longhorns’ short passing game, particularly passes to Jordan Shipley. In order to do that, a big game from cornerback Perrish Cox will be critical. Look for Cox and Shipley to be hooked up often in one-on-one coverage.
• Whoever wins the special teams battle will likely win this game. The Longhorns lead the conference with a 31.4 kickoff return average and have produced two touchdowns. Oklahoma State leads the conference in punt return average and Texas is third with four touchdowns.

Oklahoma State special teams coordinator Joe De Forest typically plays as many starters on his special teams than any team in the Big 12. He’ll need a big game out of his unit tonight.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Graham Watson



Welcome back Tim Jefferson.



After missing some time in the past four games and playing spotty when he was in the lineup, Jefferson had a big day and led the Falcons to a 34-16 win over Colorado State.



And Jefferson did most of his damage through the air.



Jefferson completed 7-of-12 passes for 11 yards and two touchdowns. It was the first time all season that Air Force passed for two scores and the first time since last year’s game against Colorado State that the Falcons had two touchdown passes.



Jefferson also rushed for 35 yards.



With the win, the Falcons move to 5-4 and have a hold on fourth place in the Mountain West Conference. Colorado State drops to 3-6 and 0-5 in conference.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Graham Watson



Temple is bowl eligible for the first time since 1990.



The Owls scored a touchdowns with 2 minutes 41 seconds remaining against Navy to take a 27-24 lead and hold on to win their sixth consecutive game.



Prior to this season, the most wins the Owls had had since 1990’s 7-4 record was last year’s five tallies. The Owls (6-2) have improved in the win column every year sincs coach Al Golden took over.



The win came courtesy of freshman running back Bernard Pierce, who rushed for 267 yards and two scores. To put that in perspective, Temple had just 311 total yards as a team.



The Temple defense also played strong, limiting Navy to 254 total yards and stopping a comeback effort by quarterback Ricky Dobbs off the bench.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Graham Watson



Navy quarterback Ricky Dobbs entered the game against Temple with 2 minutes remaining to help the Midshipmen come from behind late.



However, Dobbs’ attempt to be a last-second hero fell short and Temple won, 27-24.



Dobbs re-aggravated a cracked kneecap against SMU a couple of weeks ago and missed last week’s game against Wake Forest. Coach Ken Niumatalolo said earlier this week that Dobbs would dress, but not play.



However, since Dobbs has a stronger arm than backup Kriss Proctor, Dobbs came in late to try to get the Midshipmen in field goal range to tie the game. He completed zero passes and was sacked on fourth down.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Ted Miller



EUGENE, Ore. — The forecast for tonight from Autzen Stadium?



Noise. Darkness. Weirdness. High stakes, with the chance of a Pac-10 frontrunner.



And maybe a bit of rain. It just started to come down as of this typing. And then stopped by the last sentence below.



No. 5 USC (6-1, 3-1) visits No. 10 Oregon (6-1, 4-) in the conference game of the year — a Halloween night party that should be intense and colorful.



Tailgaters arrived early, many decked out in their Halloween finest. The theme in the stadium is “blackout,” meaning many fans will wear all-black, which should look interesting on television when the sun goes down.



The mood around Eugene is festive. The entire town seems taken by the prospects of their Ducks and first-year coach Chip Kelly. The nation is watching, too, with ESPN’s College GameDay in town.



An investigation launched by the Pac-10 blog at Taylor’s bar Friday night — with an assist from Bruce Feldman and a group of Oregon students and alumni who called themselves “The Musketeers” — concluded that things could get a little freaky in a stadium known to take things to wild extremes.



There will be plenty to entertain in the stands. Now, about the game part of the game.



The story late this week was some significant injury hits to USC’s receiving corps. Tight end Anthony McCoy (ankle) as well as receivers David Ausberry (calf) and Travon Patterson (ankle) didn’t make the trip. Fullback Stanley Havili, who is the Trojans third-leading receiver behind McCoy, also has been limited by a shoulder injury.



Freshman quarterback Matt Barkley still has Damian Williams and Ronald Johnson, an outstanding pair, but his options won’t be as diverse as they were the previous few weekends when the passing game starting clicking.



Speaking of passing games: Will Oregon, a run-first team, be able to exploit a USC pass defense, which has yielded big yards to Notre Dame and Oregon State?



Ducks quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has righted himself since a slow start. He’s completed 49 of 65 — 75 percent — of his passes with five TDs in his last three starts (he missed the UCLA game on Oct. 10 with a sprained knee).



But 280 of his 526 passing yards, and four of those touchdowns during that span, went to tight end Ed Dickson. Expect the Trojans to gang up on Dickson and see if Masoli can move the ball with his receivers, who have been inconsistent this year, other than Jeff Maehl.



Last week, Oregon State baffled the Trojans with tight end Joe Halahuni, who had career highs of nine catches for 127 yards. Might safety Taylor Mays take a special interest in Dickson?



On the other side of the ball, Oregon’s surprisingly stout defense has been a big story. The Ducks rank 19th in the nation in scoring and total defense.



But that defense hasn’t faced an offense as talented as USC’s, most particularly an offensive line like the Trojans.



The Trojans line is big but it also is very athletic, which means it might not struggle with the Ducks speedy but undersized front-seven. If USC can run Joe McKnight and Allen Bradford at will, then the Ducks will have to commit more guys to the line of scrimmage, which could leave a secondary that has been thinned by injuries exposed.



Or will the raucous Autzen magic rule the night?



Just moments ago, the students did their mad dash for seats. They immediately started chanting for their Ducks.



In the Pac-10’s biggest game of the year, though, only one team will have a happy Halloween.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Adam Rittenberg

	AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall
	Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi threw five interceptions against Indiana Saturday but an explosive performance in the fourth quarter helped the Hawkeyes to a 42-24 win.

IOWA CITY, Iowa — The thought crossed Kirk Ferentz’s mind. The Iowa head coach started to worry that his team’s edge-of-the-cliff dance would finally come to a painful end.



“I thought maybe we had dug too deep a hole today,” Ferentz said.



As it turns out, there’s no hole too deep for Iowa. There aren’t enough interceptions to keep Ricky Stanzi from rallying his team. There aren’t enough mistakes to keep these Hawkeyes from believing and, eventually, prevailing.



And after escaping a 14-point canyon Saturday against Indiana, Iowa might end up on top of the mountain after all.



Team Comeback did it again, rallying for the eighth time in nine games, this time from its largest deficit of the season, to remain perfect at 9-0. It didn’t come down to the final play this time, as Iowa actually could relax in the final three or four minutes of a 42-24 win.



But Ferentz and his players agreed Saturday’s rally was the most improbable.



“It’s got to be up at the top,” Ferentz said. “I know I haven’t been in a game like this, and I doubt I’ve seen one like this because it was just so, so different. You never survive five turnovers, let alone five picks. The odds are, I would almost say nil.”



Almost. Iowa defied the odds once again, and the biggest boost came from the man who put the team in the hole.



Stanzi threw a career-high five interceptions Saturday, four in a miserable third quarter. Entering the fourth quarter, Stanzi had completed just 10 of 23 passes for 160 yards and no touchdowns.



A stat line like Stanzi’s usually lands the quarterback a seat on the bench, but Ferentz didn’t think twice about making a change, despite some boos from the crowd.



“I’m not alone in this one,” Ferentz said. “We all believe in Rick Stanzi. The guy has done a hell of a job.”



Stanzi has done his best work in the fourth quarter, and the trend continued Saturday.



His first pass went for a 92-yard touchdown to Marvin McNutt. His second went for a 66-yard touchdown to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. He finished the fourth quarter 3-for-3 passing for 177 yards and the two scores.



“The frustration doesn’t really mount,” Stanzi said. “That’s when it can explode on you and cause even more problems for the team. You don’t want to let your team down, and everyone on this team has a great job of having that attitude.



“We can all bounce back together.”

(Read full post)

Posted by ESPN.com’s Chris Low



Here are some quick halftime thoughts from the Florida-Georgia game. The Gators lead 24-10:



Florida quarterback Tim Tebow looks like his old self, accounting for 216 of the Gators’ 246 yards. He’s playing his way right back into Heisman Trophy consideration.



For all of Georgia’s problems, the continuing penalty problems are right up there at the top. The frustrating thing for Georgia fans is this has been happening for the last couple of years. The Bulldogs have eight penalties for 84 yards at the break. That’s unacceptable, especially when you need every edge you can get in a game like this.



The Bulldogs’ tackling still doesn’t look as crisp as it needs to be, and the pass defense just isn’t very good.



Georgia quarterback Joe Cox had a stretch where he threw some nice passes, and his 26-yard touchdown toss to Aron White was a gem. But his protection broke down later in the half, and the Gators put a lot more pressure on him.



Tebow’s 23-yard touchdown run right before the end of the half was a great call against that defense. The Bulldogs had nobody in the middle of the field.



On that run, Tebow passed Herschel Walker as the all-time rushing touchdown leader in the SEC with 50.



The Gators have done a nice job of taking away Georgia receiver A.J. Green, who only had two catches in the first half.

Posted by ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg

	AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall
	Indiana coach Bill Lynch saw his Hoosiers collapse yet again in the fourth quarter on Sunday.

IOWA CITY, Iowa — Iowa’s clutch victories away from Kinnick Stadium are the talk of the Big Ten this fall, but the Indiana Hoosiers could easily be the league’s road warriors.



Indiana held fourth-quarter leads in all three of its conference road games, against Michigan, Northwestern and Iowa. And all three times, the Hoosiers managed to fall short.



The Hoosiers blew late leads in Ann Arbor and Evanston, but their fourth-quarter collapse Saturday against No. 4 Iowa had to sting the most. Indiana totally controlled the first half and overcame some speed bumps in the third quarter to claim a 24-14 lead.



But from the moment Iowa wide receiver Marvin McNutt broke free for a 92-yard touchdown, Indiana’s hopes for a huge upset, a program-reviving win and a victory that would have moved them closer to bowl eligibility went down the drain.



Iowa dominated the final 12 minutes, scoring 28 points and surging to a 42-24 triumph.



“We played a great football team that made some big plays on us,” head coach Bill Lynch said. “There wasn’t anything mental about those long pass plays. Those were plays they executed and we didn’t stop.



“Our kids were locked in from start to finish. There was not [a letdown]. That wasn’t the case.”



Indiana could have folded following an 86-yard Tyler Sash interception return that hit several players before falling into the Iowa safety’s arms. The Hoosiers also had a touchdown catch overturned by replay and missed a short field goal.



They responded from those mishaps, but Iowa’s big pass plays to McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who raced 66 yards for a touchdown, proved to be too much. Indiana played with a banged-up secondary, as two starters, cornerback Ray Fisher and safety Nick Polk, didn’t play most of the game.



The Hoosiers’ defensive backs recorded five interceptions, but the fourth-quarter breakdowns cost them in the end.



“Those are big plays that are tough to overcome,” Lynch said.



Last week, Indiana blew a 28-3 lead against Northwestern as the Wildcats mounted the biggest comeback in team history. Lynch later lamented that the Hoosiers scored too much too early.



Did it happen again?



“This is a completely different game,” Lynch said. “Our kids battled.”

Posted by ESPN.com’s Brian Bennett



Connecticut is just snake bitten.



The Huskies trailed Rutgers 21-10 at halftime, but battled back to take a 24-21 lead on Jordan Todman’s touchdown run with 38 seconds left. Todman’s run came on fourth-and-goal.



On Rutgers’ next play from scrimmage, though, Tom Savage found Tim Brown for an 81-yard touchdown pass, and the Scarlet Knights won 28-21.



UConn (4-4, 1-3 Big East) has now led in the fourth quarter in all four of its losses. None, though, were as stunning or as painful as this. You’ve got to feel bad for the Huskies, who’ve been through so much since the Jasper Howard death two weeks ago. UConn may have trouble making a bowl game now.



Props to Rutgers (6-2, 1-2), which got its first Big East win and showed a lot of heart. The Scarlet Knights couldn’t get anything going offensively in the second half until that game-winning pass, which may be the first of many legendary plays that Savage makes in his career.

	AP Photo/Lynne Sladky
	Drew Brees and the Saints will look to exploit Atlanta’s struggling secondary.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Pat Yasinskas



On paper, it might be the biggest mismatch of the NFL season.



New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees and his army of receivers, which just might be the deepest stable in the league, vs. Atlanta’s much-maligned secondary.



You could say this one is Goliath going against David again. But that one doesn’t quite fit because David also had a bit of a pass rush to compensate for his lack of size.

Related Coverage • Jaws: Falcons must slow Saints’ run game • Saints: Will they go undefeated? • Film Room notes: Pressure on this Falcon • Monday Night HQ

The Falcons simply don’t have a lot going for them in the secondary right now, and that could end up costing them any shot at the NFC South title. At 4-2, they’re already on the verge of playing only for a wild-card spot as they head into the Superdome to play the undefeated Saints on “Monday Night Football.”



The Saints have Brees, Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey and a whole bunch of other guys who can catch the ball all over the field. They’ve also got the tape of last week’s Atlanta loss to Dallas — a game in which the shortcomings of the Falcons’ secondary were exposed repeatedly.



“They got hit in a couple of pressures when they weren’t able to get to the quarterback so they had receivers with a lot of time to work downfield and the Cowboys did a good job of taking advantage of some of those,’’ Brees said.



That’s just Brees being politically correct, as he always is. But, you have to figure that Brees and coach Sean Payton have spent the week watching the Atlanta-Dallas film and getting more than a little excited about the possibilities. If Tony Romo and Miles Austin can batter the Atlanta secondary, Brees, Colston and company could absolutely shred it.



The Falcons don’t have anything close to a shutdown corner, and two of their top three cornerbacks wouldn’t be among top three cornerbacks on any other team. Although Atlanta coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff have done a great job since taking over a franchise in total disarray, cornerback might be the one spot they’re not better off than they were when they took charge in 2008.

	Tim Heitman/US Presswire
	Dallas’ Miles Austin torched the Falcons for 171 yards and two touchdowns.

Part of it is bad luck. The Falcons lost veteran cornerback Brian Williams to a season-ending injury. But part of it is that the Falcons largely have ignored this position. That’s been showing up recently and it could be completely exploited by the Saints. If that happens, Dimitroff and Smith have no one to blame but themselves.



They didn’t have a strong stable of cornerbacks last year, but they were able to hide that. They had an entire offseason to get better and they didn’t. They let Domonique Foxworth go in free agency and decided to stick with Chris Houston, Chevis Jackson and Brent Grimes — and that’s a little scary.



Houston’s the best of the bunch, but he’s a decent No. 2 cornerback being asked to be a shutdown guy. Grimes is athletic, but woefully undersized. Jackson showed some big promise as a rookie, but hasn’t been able to cover anyone this year.



The problems became apparent in the preseason and training camp and that’s why the Falcons went out and signed Williams and traded for Tye Hill at the last minute. Williams was decent before his injury, but Hill hasn’t shown anything to convince the coaching staff to let him on the field.



The Falcons also have rookie Christopher Owens and there are hopes that he could be an impact player down the road. Don’t be surprised if Owens gets some playing time against the Saints because his size might allow him to match up better than Grimes against the New Orleans receivers, but Owens isn’t going to fix all of the problems in one game.



If there is any hope for the Atlanta cornerbacks to at least slow down Brees and the passing game, they’ll have to have help — lots of it — and there haven’t been many signs that anyone is ready to come to the rescue.



The Falcons were able to hide their deficiencies in coverage last year mainly by putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That came almost entirely from veteran pass-rush specialist John Abraham, but he’s been relatively quiet this season.



At times in the Dallas game, Abraham was seen dropping into pass coverage, which makes about as much sense as putting Brees in the Wildcat formation. You have to let your best players do what they do best and the Falcons need to let Abraham focus solely on getting to Brees. They also need some help from their other starting defensive end, Kroy Biermann, who started the season fast, but has cooled off recently.



Smith and defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder tried to give the pass rush some help against Dallas by blitzing frequently, but that didn’t really work out. The blitzers seldom got close to Romo and he was able to find the weak spots in the secondary.



“You live by the pressure and you die by the pressure,’’ Brees said. “You might make a few plays when you pressure, but you’re leaving yourself open to giving up some big plays. That’s the pros and cons on a pressure defense.’’



Those are the pros and cons facing Smith and VanGorder. They have to generate a pass rush to keep their cornerbacks from being stuck in coverage too long. But Brees and the Saints are pretty good at handling pressure. Brees gets rid of the ball quickly and doesn’t take many sacks.



“I figure, with these guys, they’ve shown to pressure a lot at times and do some things that they haven’t done in the past,’’ Brees said.



Maybe that’s the key for the Falcons. Maybe they need to do something they haven’t done in the past — like have their cornerbacks actually cover some receivers.