Sports Betting Professor

I frequently get asked questions about the specifics of my betting system.  A lot of people want to know what to do in situations that contain ½ point numbers.  As you all know, there are plenty of games that fall under this category.

You have to be very careful when dealing with half points, and that all goes to the psychology behind the numbers.  Take a look at Home Favorites in the NFL and the spreads of -3 and -4.  It’s only 1 point, what’s the big deal?  But when a team is posted as a 3 pt. favorite at home they only cover 41.2% of the time.  When they’re a 4 point favorite they cover 53.1% of the time.  So is a 3.5 point spread a place that you want to be in?  Probably not. 

That’s why I harp on this aspect of the games.  You can analyze points allowed and total yards gained by a particular offense but the very first number you should spend time thinking about is the pointspread itself and what the linesmakers are thinking when they install these spreads.

The safest place to play those ‘tweener games’ is in the higher spreads because both numbers usually tend to hit on the same side of the number you’re looking for (either underdog or favorite).  Like in the NFL a +11 team covers 57.2% and a +12 covers 63.2% so you’re safe going with +11.5. 

 You can take those other ½ point numbers as straight bets and still do very well (in fact, I do this with the games I’m giving out and my straight bets are hitting at 67% this year).  But if you want to ensure the 90% system plays you’ll have to be more precise.

This past weekend was another winner for me.  The NFL System is now 25-0 for the season.  Looking forward to the Thursday games, I almost forgot they added a night NFL game now!  I was so used to Ole Miss and Mississippi St. being the only show in town on Thanksgiving night. 

See you soon and best of luck,

Rich