The Sports Betting Professor’s NFL and NBA Picks – The ‘True’ Opening Number
Today I want to talk about the betting lines and which ones I use for my system. You may or may not know, but from the time the opening NFL line is set on Sunday night until the games kick off again on the following Sunday, the lines tend to jump around a lot.
People frequently ask me about what line to use, or when the line matters most. I’ve heard some people claim that the opener is the biggest one to keep an eye on but I disagree with that. I worked at an offshore sportsbook for 8 years and sometimes that opener can be a ‘false’ opener. What I mean by that is: they release a number, the sharp players bang it up, and when the dust settles that’s your ‘real’ opener. And this number could be off by as much as 2 or 2.5 points from what was originally released.
I’m not saying it’s like in the old days, where there were instances of a phony number being put out there on purpose so heavy hitters could get a bunch of money down at a bad line. There is too much transparency and money involved these days and the mob doesn’t control Vegas anymore. Actually a new mob does control Vegas: the blue hairs. But they tend to park their sizeable behinds at nickel slot machines and aren’t too worried about betting on sports.
But back to the ‘real’ opener. After the sharps have torn into it, we tend to get the real pointspread for a particular game. This is the number the game stays on most of the week (barring an injury or suspension etc.) and where most of the betting action takes place. I also tend to disregard the last hour flurry that that can drive line movement up and down the board. This is more driven by the public at large and we don’t put much stock in what they think. Besides it will tend to settle back where it was most of the week anyhow.
In the NBA it’s the same thing but on a shorter time span. A number is released (usually by 10 or 11 AM EST). Let’s just look at today’s numbers for a crystal clear example. In the Golden St. vs. Washington game the Wizards opened as a one point favorite. In no time at all the line moved to Golden St. -2.5. That’s a 3.5 point swing! And then it settled and that’s where it still is as of 4 PM EST. So for me, the real number in that game isn’t Washington -1. No, it’s Golden St. -2.5.
The next NBA game shows Cleveland opened as a 6.5 point favorite at the Knicks. That line jumped to 8.5 and that’s where it stands now. To me, that’s the real opener.
Keep an eye out for this phenomenon going forward. The opener you first see may not be a true pointspread. Wait for that ‘real’ opener instead.
need help getting the true opening line in nba
Great post!! I just have to copy it
Nice post! I agree with most of what you are saying here for sure.
nice post realy this is great we like to touch and see some articles like this
Hi there, I found your blog via Google while searching for first aid for a heart attack and your post looks very interesting for me.
Wow! Thank you! I always wanted to write in my site something like that. Can I take part of your post to my blog?
hey id like to talk with you about your blog. please email me – thanks.
nice theme. Download from wordpress.org? Can you tell me download link.Thank you. sears parts
hmm good post…I have read this somewhere,But this is more informative.
Hey this was what i was searching for. Cool
Bookmarked!
)
Carolyn http://www.cpaoncrack.com
Yeah this is what I was looking for. ha Thanks!
Jason
You Made Some Good Points There. I Did a Search on the Topic and Found Most People Will Agree with Your Words. As an Adicted Sports Betting Punter, I am Always Searching Online for Valuable Sports Betting Information that Can Help Me. Thank You!…Please Take a Minute to Visit My Website as Well: http://bettingsystem.notlong.com/
Found your blog through a pingback to mine… nice blog by the way, bookmarked!
oh yeah.. really good post!
britney
cool i totally agree
mary
Thank you for a great blog, I will be sure to bookmark your site and check later… Usually I don’t leave a comment but I wanted to let you know that I really like your site
Awesome man! I posted some comments before anyway, because a lot of your stuff is really awesome.If interested in link exchange please contact me.
thx for this one m8
I still believe The Sports Betting Professor’s NFL and NBA Picks – The ‘True’ Opening Number | Sports Betting Professor that you should have affiliate links for the products that meet your standards for excellence. Hi HI First time skipped here on your site, founde on Bing. Thank you!! You have given me much to think about. putnamhall Send me news to thecoldcut@gmail.com